The value of the consensus and timeliness in markets with few analysts: evaluating analyst forecast accuracy in Australia

Charlene Chen
Macquarie University
Australia

Abstract:
This paper compares the relative forecast accuracy of the consensus and the most recent individual analyst earnings forecast using Australian analyst forecast data. It then examines the reasons for differences in the accuracy of these forecast measures in a market with relatively few analysts.

The consensus forecast is more accurate than the most recent individual analyst forecast in 19 out of 20 years of the sample period from 1987 to 2006. The differences are significant for 9 out of 20 years. In spite of the low number of analysts following in the local market, it is the number of analysts following which explains the greater accuracy of the consensus forecast. Furthermore, the timeliness of analysts’ forecasts does not contribute to increasing forecast accuracy over a short forecast horizon.